Ex ante impact assessment of the adoption of ‘Cana Flex’ technological asset for the production of second-generation ethanol

Authors

  • Rosana do Carmo Nascimento Guiducci Economista, doutora em Economia Aplicada, pesquisadora da Embrapa Agroenergia, Brasília, DF.
  • Hugo Bruno Correa Molinari Engenheiro-Agrônomo, doutor em Agronomia, pesquisador da Embrapa Agroenergia, Brasília, DF.
  • Priscila Seixas Sabaini Engenheira de Alimentos, mestre em Ciências de Alimentos, analista da Embrapa Agroenergia, Brasília, DF.
  • Thályta Fraga Pacheco Engenheira Química, mestre em Engenharia Química, analista da Embrapa Agroenergia, Brasília, DF.
  • Adilson Kenji Kobayashi Biólogo, doutor em Biologia Molecular, pesquisador da Embrapa Agroenergia, Brasília, DF.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35977/0104-1096.cct2021.v38.26882

Keywords:

biofuel, sugarcane, research and development, RenovaBio

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the ex ante economic and environmental impacts of the sugarcane cultivar ‘Cana Flex’, as well as the return of investment in research and development. ‘Cana Flex’ provides a better use of biomass in the production of second-generation ethanol (E2G). Adoption scenarios were considered to estimate the economic gains in the production of E2G, and in the commercialization of decarbonization credits (CBios), under the national biofuel policy (Política Nacional de Biocombustível - RenovaBio). The results indicate that if 10% of sugarcane bagasse, produced in the 2018/2019 harvest, was destined for E2G production, the ‘Cana Flex’ differential, compared to an unmodified cultivar, would imply 393,263.6 m3 increase of E2G, with the emission reduction of 748,983.06 t CO2eq, and R$ 37.4 million gains with the sale of CBios. Considering the gains with CBios, the investment in research and development would show 47% internal return rate (IRR) and R$ 87.9 million net present value (NPV) in 20 years. ‘Cana Flex’ shows a great potential to contribute to the E2G economic viability in Brazil, increasing production and generating economic gains for the productive sector, besides contributing to the achievement of the Brazilian goals for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

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Published

2021-11-08

How to Cite

Guiducci, R. do C. N., Molinari, H. B. C., Sabaini, P. S., Pacheco, T. F., & Kobayashi, A. K. (2021). <i>Ex ante</i> impact assessment of the adoption of ‘Cana Flex’ technological asset for the production of second-generation ethanol. Science & Technology Journals, 38(3), e26882. https://doi.org/10.35977/0104-1096.cct2021.v38.26882

Issue

Vol. 38 No. 3 (2021)

Section

Artigos

License

After publication of the work, the Authors are authorized to non-exclusively distribute the version of the published work (for example: publish in an institutional repository, as a book chapter, create links on electronic pages, etc.), as long as the authorship and initial publication in this journal are mentioned.