Scenario planning: what do definitions show about its purpose?

Authors

  • Elaine Coutinho Marcial Bacharel em Estatística, doutora em Ciência da Informação, pesquisadora do Laboratório de Simulações e Cenário da Escola de Guerra Naval (LSC-EGN), Brasília, DF.
  • Silvia Kanadani Campos Médica-Veterinária, doutora em ciências (Economia Aplicada), pesquisadora da Assessoria de Estratégia da Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (AEST/Embrapa), Brasília, DF.
  • Jhonathan Divino Ferreira dos Santos Bacharel em Biblioteconomia, mestre em Economia e Gestão do Setor Público, técnico de Desenvolvimento e Administração no Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea), Brasília, DF.
  • Ariel Pares Engenheiro-Agrônomo, mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico, assessor da Secretaria Nacional de Planejamento, do Ministério do Planejamento e Orçamento, Brasília, DF.
  • Rodrigo Mendes Leal Economista, doutor em Políticas Públicas, Estratégias e Desenvolvimento, economista do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) e pesquisador do LSC-EGN, Rio de Janeiro, RJ.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35977/0104-1096.cct2024.v41.27403

Keywords:

management, philosophy of science, scenario planning, strategic foresight

Abstract

Scenario planning methods have been used since the 1950s. However, there is not a widely used definition within this field of study. For this field to evolve adequately, a comprehensive understanding of an organization’s purpose to use it is essential. This article aimed to present the purposes of scenario planning that were identified through a literature review of scenarios and scenario planning. Therefore, we carried out a research, in which we analyzed 33 scientific and technical documents whose authors have defined scenarios and scenario planning. The results show 15 different purposes for scenario planning, which we consolidated into six categories that represent different usages of this process. Then, we generated insights for both researchers and practitioners who seek a nuanced comprehension of the use of these methods.

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Published

2024-12-06

How to Cite

Marcial, E. C., Campos, S. K., dos Santos, J. D. F., Pares, A., & Leal, R. M. (2024). Scenario planning: what do definitions show about its purpose?. Science & Technology Journals, 41, e27403. https://doi.org/10.35977/0104-1096.cct2024.v41.27403

Issue

V.41, Jan./Dec., 2024: Publicação contínua em volume anual

Section

Review

License

After publication of the work, the Authors are authorized to non-exclusively distribute the version of the published work (for example: publish in an institutional repository, as a book chapter, create links on electronic pages, etc.), as long as the authorship and initial publication in this journal are mentioned.