Dinamic relations in brazilian soybean prices

Abstract

Dynamic and causal relationships among soybean prices were studied using the Box-Jenkins approach and spectral analysis at three market levels: international price (Rotterdam), wholesale price (São Paulo City) and farmer's price (State of São Paulo, Brazil). The authors concluded that international price leads farmer's price and that there is feedback between farmer's price and wholesale price. Farmer's price leads at high frequencies (short-run influences) and is led at low frequencies (long-run influences).