Analysis of climatic variation in a changing livestock and agricultural area: Misiones, Paraguay

Abstract

Over recent decades, the Misiones Department, located in southern Paraguay, has shifted from an almost exclusively natural pasture-based traditional livestock production region, to the major rice production area of the country, soybeans maize, and family farm crops are also grown. Producers face production risk due to climate variability and change, and due to a lack of studies and analysis of meteorological variables in the area. The major risk are related to precipitation, including excess, deficiencies, intense events and frosts. We used RClimDex to analyze extreme event trends, specifically precipitation and temperature values; and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to analyze drought. Results show that drought is a recurrent phenomenon and that it alternates with periods of significant rainfall excesses. First frost is June seven, the last frost occurs on August two, and the frost period is on average 57 days. We found significant increases in intense precipitation and on wet days. A negative trend was observed in summer days, monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature, hot days, cold nights and daytime temperature range. These results properly communicated may help producers avoid and adapt to climate risk.