Territorial dynamics and productive potential of agro-extractive species in strengthening sociobioeconomy

Abstract

The objective of this work was to estimate the population density of five Brazilian Cerrado species and to evaluate their productive potential under two scenarios, one with vegetation conservation and the other with deforestation. The studied species were: Annona crassiflora, Caryocar brasiliense, Eugenia dysenterica, Hancornia speciosa, and Tachigali subvelutina. For this, nine species distribution models were used, each one encompassing 23 bioclimatic and geomorphological environmental variables. Population density was quantified and spatialized with exponential regression models using forest inventory data. The models indicated a moderate to strong proportional relationship between habitat suitability and population density, with a root mean square error ranging from 35.8 to 55.7%. Estimated productivity varied from 1,325 to 254,844 Mg per year, with E. dysenterica showing the highest productive potential. The modeling of species distribution allows for the estimation of population density and productive potential. Its accuracy depends on the used species, environment, and scale of data. Climate pressures and Cerrado degradation intensify the challenges faced by local communities, highlighting the urgency of conservation strategies, sustainable management, and climate adaptation to strengthen sociobioeconomy.