Climate change and the occurrence of downy mildew in Brazilian grapevines

Abstract

The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the occurrence of grapevine downy mildew in Brazil. Seedlings containing four to six leaves were sprayed with a sporangia suspension containing 105 sporangia per milliliter. After spraying, the seedlings were subjected to temperatures of 26, 28, 29.1, 30.4, and 31.8°C for 24 hours. The percentage of diseased leaf area and the latent period were evaluated. Maps of the geographic and temporal distribution of the disease were made considering the monthly average of the mean air temperature and leaf wetness duration for the reference climate or climate normal (1961–1990) and the future climates (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100), considering the A2 and B1 gas emission scenarios, designed by the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Favorability ranges were set and used in logic functions of the geografical  information system (GIS) to generate monthly maps for grapevine downy mildew. Rising temperatures interfered with the grapevine downy mildew infections, reduced the disease severity, and increased the latent period. Future climate scenarios indicate a reduction of favorability of downy mildew in Brazil, with variability in the different grape producing regions.