Forecasting the rice yield in Rio Grande do Sul using the SimulArroz model

Abstract

The objective of this work was to evaluate a flooded-rice yield forecasting method for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, using the SimulArroz model. Version 1.1 of this model and historical meteorological data were used, with six different scenarios composed of the following levels of field information: number of sowing dates (1 to 4) and number of cultivars and/or development cycles (1 to 3) during four growing seasons (2014/2015 to 2017/2018). The root mean square error (RMSE) for comparing the actual yield with the simulated yield for Rio Grande do Sul was of 618.3 and 1,024.8 kg ha^-1, i.e., of 8 and 13%, respectively. The forecast of rice yield by applying the SimulArroz model and historic meteorological data for Rio Grande do Sul shows a good predictability, and the recommended scenario is complex 1, using three sowing dates per site and the three most representative rice cultivars per region.