Probabilistic analysis of vulnerability to stenospermocarpy due to hygrothermal stress in 'Palmer' mangoes using a copula-based approach

Authors

  • Edgo Jackson Pinto Santiago Universidade de Pernambuco, Núcleo Comum das Licenciaturas do Campus Petrolina, BR 203, KM 2, s/no, Vila Eduardo, CEP 56328-900 Petrolina, PE.
  • José Ramon Barros Cantalice Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Departamento de Estatística e Informática, Rua Dom Manuel de Medeiros, s/no, Dois Irmãos, CEP 52171-900 Recife, PE.
  • Frank Gomes-Silva Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Departamento de Estatística e Informática, Rua Dom Manuel de Medeiros, s/no, Dois Irmãos, CEP 52171-900 Recife, PE.
  • Maria Aparecida do Carmo Mouco Embrapa Semiárido, BR 428, Km 152, Zona Rural, Caixa Postal 23, CEP 56302-970 Petrolina, PE.
  • Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Departamento de Estatística e Informática, Rua Dom Manuel de Medeiros, s/no, Dois Irmãos, CEP 52171-900 Recife, PE.
  • Moacyr Cunha Filho Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Departamento de Estatística e Informática, Rua Dom Manuel de Medeiros, s/no, Dois Irmãos, CEP 52171-900 Recife, PE.
  • Gertrudes Macario de Oliveira Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Departamento de Tecnologia e Ciências Sociais, Campus III, Rua Edgar Chastinet, s/no, São Geraldo, CEP 48905-680 Juazeiro, BA.
  • Ana Karla da Silva Freire Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Núcleo de Assistência e Promoção à Saúde, Rua Cento e Sessenta e Três, no 300, Garapu, CEP 54503-900 Cabo de Santo Agostinho, PE.

Keywords:

Mangifera indica, mango market, weather influence

Abstract

The objective of this work was to probabilistically identify susceptible seasons to the highest incidence of stenospermocarpic fruit in 'Palmer' mangoes, using univariate and copula procedures. Additionally, the impact of climatic variables on price fluctuations in the mango market was evaluated in the region of the Vale do Submédio São Francisco, Brazil. The normal, log-normal, gamma, and generalized extreme value distributions, as well as the Frank copula, were fitted to temperature and relative humidity data (2007–2018) obtained from the meteorological station of Universidade do Estado da Bahia. The adequacy of the distributions was verified using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramér-von Mises, and Anderson-Darling tests. The Frank copula is suitable for the joint modeling of the maximum temperature and minimum relative humidity. The occurrence of high temperatures and low relative humidity affects the price of mangoes. November shows a high probability of the simultaneous occurrences of high temperatures and low relative air humidity, which makes 'Palmer' mango orchards in full bloom (or early fruiting) significantly subject to extreme weather conditions that favor  higher rates of stenospermocarpy in the harvests from April to May. 

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Published

2024-08-22

How to Cite

Santiago, E. J. P., Cantalice, J. R. B., Gomes-Silva, F., Mouco, M. A. do C., Silva, A. S. A. da, Cunha Filho, M., … Freire, A. K. da S. (2024). Probabilistic analysis of vulnerability to stenospermocarpy due to hygrothermal stress in ’Palmer’ mangoes using a copula-based approach. Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira, 59(AB), e03467. Retrieved from https://apct.sede.embrapa.br/pab/article/view/27731

Issue

V.59, Jan./Dec., 2024 :Continuos publication

Section

STATISTICS