Computer model for simulate the occurrence of sequence of dry spells and decrease of crop yield

Abstract

A computational model was written in "Turbo Pascal for Windows", aiming to simulate, using Monte Carlo's method, the occurrence of sequences of dry spells during the cropping season and the consequent decrease in yield for a given crop. The simulation was based on series of frequency of sequence of dry-spell periods and evapotranspiration. Valuation of the model was accomplished for corn production in the region of Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, for two different crop periods: normal cropping season and cropping during the fall season ("safrinha"). Results show that in the normal cropping season the probability of substantial amount of lost is small. When cropping corn in Piracicaba is done during the fall season, probabilities of occurring substantial losses are higher. For both cropping periods, decreasing in yield is higher when dry spells happen during flowering stage, followed by the grain filling period.