Climatic changes impact in agroclimatic zonning of coffee in Brazil

Abstract

According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global temperature is supposed to increase 1°C to 5.8°C and the rainfall 15% in the Tropical area. This paper analyses the effect that these possible scenarios would have in the agroclimatic zoning of the arabic coffee (Coffea arabica L.) main plantation areas in Brazil. The results indicated a reduction of suitable areas greater than 95% in Goiás, Minas Gerais and São Paulo and about 75% for Paraná in the case of a temperature increase of 5.8°C. These results presume that all the physiological characteristics of the crop will be the same for the varieties analyzed and that the ideal climatic condition for economic development is mean annual temperatures between 18°C and 23°C.